Do the Rockies Have a Shot?

That’s been the question that the Colorado Rockies, despite winning 21 of their last 22 games, have had to face ever since they finished off the Arizona Diamondbacks. Before we even knew who was coming out of the AL, the Rockies were being written off. Normally I can’t root for teams with that perennial underdog complex, but it’s well-justified in Colorado’s case.

Yes, I know the American League has been a lot better this year and that the Rockies barely made the playoffs in the weak National League. The Rockies still get to take the field and have a legitimate shot at beating the Red Sox. The problem is that for the Rockies to win, a lot of things need to go right. The Red Sox have more talent, especially in their pitching, and thus more margin for error.

It would seem that some intangibles are in the Rockies’ favor. First, their hot streak should give them a ton of momentum. At the same time, they’ve had eight days off and will be very well-rested. These both sound like great advantages, but they don’t go together…at all. The rest is nice, but it will kill all of Colorado’s momentum. In other sports, the rest would be a considerable advantage, but this is baseball. There’s no effective way to practice that equates to playing a real game, and the key elements are so based on rhythm that the time off can be devastating. Some would argue that the Red Sox will be fatigued coming in, but why would they be? They played a seven game series over nine days. Teams regularly play nine games in nine days in the regular season and they don’t complain about it.

So you can scratch those advantages out. The rest actually serves as a disadvantage and momentum is overrated anyway. Even if momentum was a legitimate factor (and I’ll admit it plays a small role. There is a psychological element in baseball), the Red Sox have more of it after rallying from a 3-1 deficit and by doing so more recently.

The Red Sox pitching is far superior to the Rockies, both their starters and in the bullpen. Jeff Francis has pitched very well, but he’s no Josh Beckett. Curt Schilling isn’t as good as he used to be, but he’s still a reliable playoff pitcher, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has been mediocre in October, but he should be just as good as anyone Colorado can muster for Game 3. In the ‘pen, Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima can effectively end a game in the 7th inning, whereas Colorado can send out Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas. Both have been effective, but neither can compare to Boston’s relievers.

If the Rockies are going to win, it will be with their offense (and their fielding, to a degree). Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are excellent, and Kevin Youkilis was phenomenal in the ALCS, but after that the Red Sox offense is a little shaky. The main reason they were down 3-1 in the first place is because their other players weren’t getting hits and driving in Manny, Ortiz, and Youkilis.

Colorado’s offense is much more balanced. Matt Holliday is the favorite to win the MVP after a monster season. Todd Helton is still a very good hitter, even if he doesn’t have the home run power that he used to. Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are both very dangerous, and Kaz Matsui has been excellent at the plate in the post-season. The Red Sox have superior pitching, but the Rockies make up for it, partially, with a more dangerous lineup.

The real determining factor in this series will be the ballparks. It is well-known that Fenway provides a major homefield advantage for the Red Sox. The Green Monster has been known to fool many opposing left fielders, while at the same time it gives Manny relatively little ground to cover. Boston’s homefield advantage is well-established, but what could be more important is how the Red Sox handle Coors Field.

It’s true that Coors Field is no longer the home run haven it used to be, now that the humidor has been implemented, but it is still a very spacious park which could play into the hands of the Rockies. While Colorado’s outfielders all have very good range, this could be a problem for Boston. Manny doesn’t cover a lot of ground and has been known to misplay balls and J.D. Drew is also a mediocre fielder. One option would be to start both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, which would probably give the Red Sox enough speed in the outfield to mask Manny’s poor fielding, but this would be risky. While Drew has not hit especially well, save his grand slam in Game 6, his bat would be a welcome addition to the lineup considering that the Red Sox will have to sit either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis, as Ortiz is forced to play first base due to National League rules. The Red Sox infield defense will also be lackluster, with Ortiz at first, Julio Lugo at shortstop, and possibly Youkilis at third base. These defensive struggles and the offensive drain could well be enough for the Rockies to take two games in Denver.

All that said, the Red Sox are the better all-around team, with much better pitching, and they have homefield advantage in the series, which should be enough for them to win. Don’t count the Rockies out, but I’m taking the Red Sox in 6.

Thoughts From Week 7

Colts 29, Jaguars 7: This game had great upset potential right up until David Garrard went down in the first half. Poor Jaguars fans. Just when they thought they were done watching terrible quarterback play, Garrard goes down and leaves them with Quinn Gray. This would’ve been a shutout if not for Maurice Jones-Drew’s 65 yard kickoff return. The Jaguars are still a very good team, but they’re clearly not as good as the Colts or Patriots, not that anyone else is.

Meanwhile, the Colts did a good job of limiting Jacksonville’s running game, at least in the early going. The Jaguars actually averaged a very respectable 4.3 yards per carry, but they only ran the ball 27 times because the Colts got ahead early. Basically, the Colts are really good, which we already knew.

What I really want to know is, what was Tony Dungy thinking challenging that Jones-Drew TD? I can understand how he would want to challenge whether Jones-Drew fumbled, but it was pretty clear that the Jaguars came up with the ball after it came loose. There was never a moment when the Colts were even close to having possession. I know Dungy couldn’t see that from the sideline, but don’t they pay people to look at the replay and tell him whether or not to challenge it?

Broncos 31, Steelers 28: Pretty impressive win for the Broncos, knocking off the Steelers in dramatic fashion, which appears to be the only way they can win games. It’s very hard to know what to make of Denver. They beat Pittsburgh, barely, but they beat Buffalo the same way. They’re just a strange team. As for the Steelers, I’m still not convinced they’re as good as many people seem to think. Sure, they’re 4-2, but their only impressive win came at home against the Seahawks, who went on to lose to the Saints a week later. Other than that they’ve beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Plus, they’ve lost 2 of 3 on the road. Baltimore in Week 9 could be a good test, but other than that they don’t face a tough team until Week 14, when they go to New England.

Bears 19, Eagles 16: What exactly compelled the Eagles to throw the ball 34 times and run it only 25 times? They averaged 4.9 yards per carry and Donovan McNabb was having a so-so game and, more importantly, they were leading for all but about five minutes. As an Eagles fan, I’ve already started planning for next year when Bill Cowher is coaching Kevin Kolb, and Brian Westbrook is splitting carries with Michael Turner. Here’s hoping anyway.

As for the Bears, they look like the are on the rise. Brian Griese has been just what the doctor ordered. He’s been efficient and hasn’t turned the ball over (or at least not at Grossman levels). He’s actually carried that offense to a degree, and he’s had to, with Cedric Benson struggling. The Bears have a great shot to make the playoffs and maybe even take the division.

Cowboys 24, Vikings 14: This game wasn’t as close as the score. The Vikings were lucky to be leading, as they only had one legitimate drive, capped off by (who else) Adrian Peterson running in a TD. The other touchdown came on a fumble recovery. (Two fumbles, if you count the one Griffin made on his own, then recovered.) Dallas may have some defensive deficiencies, but they can stop the run and are a far better team than the Vikings, and they showed it in the second half (as usual).

Titans 38, Texans 36: Rob Bironas for MVP? …Yeah, I didn’t think so either. I’m just in shock that Kerry Collins managed to win a game and only turn the ball over once.

Redskins 21, Cardinals 19: Ken Whisenhunt is my new favorite NFL coach. Even when his schemes don’t work, they’re always entertaining. Normally losing on a failed two-point conversion would be pretty unremarkable, but when Anquan Boldin is throwing an incomplete pass in the process? That’s good TV. Granted, that play only would’ve worked in college, but I’m giving Whisenhunt points for creativity.

Giants 33, 49ers 15: The Giants have a pretty good defense. There I said it. They’re beating bad teams the way they should. That said, I still think they’ll get abused when they finally play someone worthwhile. They’ll probably be a playoff team, but with nine wins, tops.

Patriots 49, Dolphins 28: I know I wasn’t the only one who thought the Patriots would keep demolishing the Dolphins in the second half. I was expecting a 70 point game. Nice work Belichick, that’ll teach the NFL to…enforce its rules? Something like that.

I feel really bad for the Dolphins, who have a great shot to go winless. They weren’t a good team to begin with, but the Ronnie Brown injury is just unfair. They didn’t deserve that. Now the fate of the season (which is already over anyway) depends on Cleo Lemon and Jesse Chatman. Good luck…

Lions 23, Buccaneers 16: Who would’ve thought when Jon Kitna faced Jeff Garcia, turnovers would be the difference…and Kitna would win? Good thing they were fumbles. Garcia’s interception-less streak remains!

Bills 19, Ravens 14: Willis McGahee had a pretty good game against his former team (114 yards on 19 carries), but it wasn’t enough. Not with Kyle Boller at the helm. Of course if you take out McGahee’s 46 yard touchdown run, his performance was pretty average in terms of yards per carry. The real difference in this game was penalties, which cost the Ravens 91 yards compared to 25 for the Bills. Also notable is that Lee Evans FINALLY had a good game. Still no TDs, but 98 yards on five receptions is definitely a good sign. Look for a breakout game against the Jets next week.