NBA Preview: Central Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls continued to improve last season, winning 49 games and reaching the second round of the playoffs. Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon had very good seasons, but the real story was Luol Deng, who was the Bulls’ best player and enjoyed a breakout season, putting up 18.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG. The addition of Ben Wallace helped the Bulls, although it remains a questionable move. Wallace is now 33 and last year was his worst rebounding and shot-blocking season since 1999-2000, the year before he came to Detroit. Meanwhile, his predecessor, Tyson Chandler, had a considerably better season in New Orleans. That aside, Wallace is still a good team leader and remained a strong defensive presence for the young Bulls. Other standouts included sixth man Andres Nocioni, and rookies Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha. Thomas struggled early, but showed signs late in the season, while Sefolosha was successful at times as a defensive stopper.

By the time the playoffs rolled around, there was more talk about what the Bulls didn’t do than what they had accomplished. They were heavily criticized for not pulling the trigger on a trade for Pau Gasol, a move which many thought would’ve put the Bulls over the edge. If nothing else, they would have done well to trade P.J. Brown’s expiring contract. Despite being mentioned in Kobe Bryant trade talk, it was an uneventful off-season for Chicago. They drafted Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray, and JamesOn Curry. Noah is basically a Ben Wallace clone, at this point anyway, and will do little to help their inside-scoring woes. Gray is big enough to help in that department, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll play much and if he does, he may have a hard time keeping up with the rest of the team. Curry is a decent scorer, but the Bulls’ backcourt is already pretty full. The only free agent signing the Bulls made was that of Joe Smith. Smith played fairly well for the Sixers last year, once he got regular playing time, but he’s an injury risk and it’s unlikely he’ll give them much more than Brown did.

The Bulls should be an elite team in the Eastern Conference, but it’s hard to see them getting to the NBA Finals. Chicago still lacks low-post scoring, which has plagued them ever since they traded Eddy Curry. They have excellent perimeter players, but teams can focus almost entirely on perimeter defense because none of the Bulls’ big men are a threat to score down low. As a result, their entire offense relies on driving and kicking. This can work against a slow team that can’t guard the perimeter (i.e. Miami), but against more athletic teams it makes the Bulls strictly a jump-shooting team. When the Bulls are hot, they’ll be able to beat anyone, but they’ll have nights when the shots aren’t falling and they can lose to almost anyone. One thing the Bulls have in their favor is their rebounding, as offensive rebounds are critical to their success. Noah and Smith should help in that department. The Bulls should finish with the best record in the East, but look for another second round playoff exit.

Detroit Pistons: Many wondered how the Pistons would fare without Ben Wallace, but they silenced their critics in the regular season and finished with the best record in the East. Removing Wallace from the equation improved Detroit’s offense, particularly when Chris Webber was added to the mix. Webber’s passing, in particular, was a perfect fit in the Pistons offense. The area where Detroit missed Wallace the most was, predictably, shot-blocking. This came back to haunt them in the playoffs, when LeBron James led the Cavaliers, practically by himself, past the Pistons. James was able to drive to the lane at will, and as a result defeated the Pistons in the Conference Finals.

Detroit didn’t make any headlines in the off-season, but they made some good moves nonetheless. The first, and most important, was re-signing Chauncey Billups. Billups’ numbers were down a bit from 2005-06, but he still had a very strong season, with 17 PPG and 7.2 APG. The Pistons also gave Antonio McDyess an extension, which was a little risky considering his injury history, but they needed to do it, as McDyess will have to play a larger role this season, as Webber was let go. In the draft, Detroit took Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. Stuckey has looked outstanding so far, but he will miss 6 weeks with a hand injury. Stuckey, a combo guard with good range on his jumper, will be a major upgrade over Flip Murray. Afflalo may not get many minutes, but could find a niche as a poor man’s Raja Bell.

While the Pistons are getting older, they are still one of the top teams in the East. The key to the season will likely by Rasheed Wallace, who supposedly lost 25 lbs in the off-season, which should improve his mobility and make him a more dangerous scorer. Detroit can still expect good production out of Billups and Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince could improve a bit. Detroit’s biggest advantage is its size, where ‘Sheed, McDyess, Jason Maxiell, and newly signed Amir Johnson should give the Pistons one of the league’s better frontcourts. Detroit may have lost a step, but they’ll be right in the mix for the East’s best record.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers capped off a 50 win season with an impressive playoff run and a trip to the NBA Finals. Unfortunately LeBron James was in for a rude awakening there, as his team was swept convincingly by the San Antonio Spurs. While the Cavs were perceived as a one-man show, LeBron had a considerable amount of help. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao, and Donyell Marshall combined to give Cleveland one of the league’s better frontcourts, while Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic emerged as scoring options in the backcourt. That said, a number of Cavs players took a step backward, most notably Larry Hughes. Hughes struggled to stay healthy and was relatively ineffective even when he was. Damon Jones had a down year and saw his playing time drop dramatically. Meanwhile, Eric Snow got a lot of minutes, despite his non-existent shooting skills and declining defense.

The Cavs had a quiet off-season, which probably frustrated James. The only significant addition was that of Devin Brown, who is a very mediocre shooting guard. Still, he is a good three-point shooter and can play a little point guard, so he should be an upgrade over Snow and Jones. However, the Cavs may have lost more than they gained. Varejao and Pavlovic remain unsigned as of yet and the two will be greatly missed in Cleveland if they do not return.

With the lack of major additions, LeBron will be very heavily depended on once again. Ilguaskas, Gooden, and Marshall remain in the frontcourt, Varejao’s energy, offensive rebounding, and shot-blocking will be greatly missed. Pavlovic’s three-point shooting would have been a great help as well, though Brown may be able to make up for some of it. Barring a monster season from James, the key to the Cavaliers season will be their guard play. Gibson will have to prove his playoff performance was not a fluke and Hughes will have to stay healthy and give Cleveland a reliable second scoring option.

Milwaukee Bucks: On paper, this looks like a pretty dangerous team. Michael Redd is one of the league’s better scorers, Mo Williams had a breakout season last year, Andrew Bogut is a former first overall pick, and Charlie Villanueva had a strong rookie campaign. Too bad the game isn’t played on paper. The Bucks struggled with injuries and inconsistency, then seemed to give up at the end of the season. While the Bucks could shoot, they were one of the worst defensive teams in the league. In the end, they finished with the third worst record in the NBA, but only had the sixth overall pick to show for it.

They used that pick on Yi Jianlian, which was nearly a disaster. Yi had not worked out for Milwaukee and had little interest in playing there, as the city does not have a large Chinese-American population and because the Bucks seemed to already have a crowded frontcourt. Eventually he was convinced to sign with the team, but only after he was promised major minutes. Yi is a very promising prospect with almost unlimited potential, but it’s very difficult to know how effectively he can adjust to the NBA. Milwaukee also added Desmond Mason, who should help their defense, but provides very little on the other end. The Bucks almost lost Charlie Bell to Miami after he signed an offer sheet and asked the Bucks to let him go, but they opted to match the offer and keep him. Key losses included Ruben Patterson, who provided great energy and rebounding last season, and Earl Boykins.

The Bucks are a young and intriguing team, but they’ve got a ways to go. Bogut has yet to prove he was deserving of being draft first overall, Villanueva has been very inconsistent, and no one knows what to expect from Yi. One has to wonder if chemistry will be an issue, as Yi takes some of Villanueva’s minutes. If the entire team can mesh and stay healthy, the Bucks might be able to fight for a low seed in the playoffs, but odds are they’ll be making another trip to the lottery.

Indiana Pacers: The Pacers struggled mightily last season, particularly after an eight player trade with Golden State that sent Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson to Oakland for Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Ike Diogu. While Diogu is still very young and could develop, Dunleavy and Murphy played terribly and it’s unlikely they’ll be any better this year. Jermaine O’Neal was by far the Pacers best player, particularly on the defensive end where he was among the best in the league, but he had a down year on offense. Danny Granger had a decent season and Darrell Armstrong was surprisingly productive, but Indiana had very little going for them.

In the off-season, O’Neal was discussed in many potential trades, including a popular scenario where he paired with Kobe Bryant in LA, but nothing came of it and he’ll be back with the Pacers this season. The biggest move the Pacers actually made was firing Rick Carlisle and replacing him with Jim O’Brien. O’Brien is a capable coach and he ought to improve Indiana’s offense, simply because it can’t get much worse. The only other additions of note were Travis Diener and Kareem Rush. Both are good shooters and should help the Pacers at guard, but neither is good enough to play major minutes.

One has to wonder how long it will be before O’Neal is traded, as his value is only going to decline at this point and the Pacers are far from contention. Whether or not O’Neal is dealt will be the difference between finishing 4th in the division or last in the conference. Either way, this is going to be an ugly season for Indiana unless they get major improvement out of Granger and a few other young players.

NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Boston Celtics: It was a tough season to be a Celtics fan last year. Many thought this would be the year the Celtics’ young players broke though and made the team competitive again. This occurred in the case of Al Jefferson, who emerged as one of league’s better low-post scorers, but the rest of the team struggled. Paul Pierce was often injured and only played in 47 games and as a result the Celtics finished with the worst record in the East. Frustration increased when the draft lottery left Boston with the fifth overall pick, putting an end to the dreams of Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in Celtics green.

In contrast, Celtics fans could not be more optimistic about this season thanks to the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Garnett is a future Hall of Famer and is one of the best all-around players in the game. Allen can shoot the lights out and should get a lot of open looks with Pierce and Garnett drawing double teams. Boston’s new Big Three will be incredibly difficult to defend and they should make the Celtics one of the East’s top teams. The one downside to the trade is the resulting lack of depth. The starting lineup will be rounded out by Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. Perkins shouldn’t have to do much except play solid defense and rebound. Rondo’s poor shooting could be a liability, as it will allow defenses to sag off him and double team Pierce, Allen, or Garnett, but he may be able to make up for it with his defense and passing. Other significant additions were James Posey and Eddie House. Posey is valuable as a fourth scoring option and as a lock-down defender, plus his playoff experience could prove useful, as he is the only current Celtic with a ring. House is listed as a point guard, but he is really a shooter. He should be able to knock down some open threes and keep defenses honest.

The Celtics should be one of the top teams in the East, but it’s hard to see them finishing with the best record because of the lack of depth. This will likely cost them several games throughout the year and it’s unrealistic to predict much more than 50 wins. That said, 50 wins should be enough to win the Atlantic. While this team should be fearsome in the playoffs, one has to wonder if the Big Three will be worn down from the regular season. There are also major questions about Doc Rivers ability to effectively run this team. Talent should prevail in the regular season, but in the playoffs, coaching has a much bigger impact. Meanwhile, there will be a lot of pressure on Boston to produce this year. The Big Three are all over 30 and it’s hard to know how much they have left in the tank. They’ll all be good this year, but if the Celtics are going to win a title with this group, it’s going to have to be in the next 2-3 years.

Toronto Raptors: After securing the first overall pick and using it on Andrea Bargnani, the Raptors surprised many by winning the Atlantic. Despite getting ousted in the first round by New Jersey, it was a very successful season. Chris Bosh improved and made the All-Star team for the first time, T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon were a potent tandem at point guard, and Jorge Garbajosa and Anthony Parker proved effective in their limited roles. Sam Mitchell won Coach of the Year, though there were questions about his job security in the off-season.

The Raptors return with most of last year’s team intact. The biggest moves were the departure of Morris Peterson and the subsequent addition of Jason Kapono. Mitchell had clearly lost faith in Peterson, who had career lows in games started (12) and minutes per game (21.4), but replacing him with Kapono is very questionable. Kapono is coming off an excellent season in Miami, where he shot above 50% from downtown, but it’s hard to see him maintaining that percentage in Toronto. He was able to shoot so well because of the open looks he got that come with playing alongside Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade. It’s unlikely that Bosh can find him as many good shots, plus we’ve seen this from Miami shooters before (see: Jones, Damon). Kapono can still stretch the defense, as he is a fine shooter, but Toronto almost certainly overpaid for him.

Despite Boston’s improvement, Toronto has a real shot at winning the Atlantic. While they didn’t make any big moves, their best chance at improvement comes from within. Bosh is still young and getting better and he could take a big step forward this year. Bargnani has a lot of room to improve and he should benefit from more consistent playing time. The Atlantic will not come as easily as it did last year, but moderate improvement from their young players should be enough for Toronto to put up a fight for the division.

New Jersey Nets: Despite high expectations, the Nets barely made the playoffs last year, thanks to a late-season hot streak. Injuries played a large role, as Richard Jefferson only played in only 55 games and Nenad Krstic managed only 26 before he required knee surgery. The Krstic injury left New Jersey with Jason Collins, Clifford Robinson, Mikkie Moore, and Josh Boone as their big men. Collins played excellent defense, but did nothing else, while Robinson and Boone did little of note. Moore played fairly well and became the latest big man to get a substantial contract purely because of Jason Kidd. In the backcourt, Kidd and Vince Carter had strong seasons, but the lack of depth and a weak frontcourt left the Nets a .500 team.

There was a great deal of talk about blowing this team up when the Nets were struggling, but making the playoffs seems to have convinced them that the Kidd-Carter-Jefferson trio can get them past the second round. As a result, Vince Carter was re-signed and the team made a few other minor additions. Jamaal Magloire was added to shore up the frontcourt, which sounds good on paper, but “on paper” is the only place Magloire has been good in the last several years. The team also drafted Sean Williams, who should give the Nets good shot-blocking and defense and ought to catch some lobs from Kidd for alley-oops. Moore left for Sacramento in the off-season, but he shouldn’t be missed too much. Eddie House also departed and the Nets will likely miss his offense.

With their off-season moves, the Nets have more options in their frontcourt, but it’s hard to say how much better it makes them. Krstic was looking like a very good talent before he went down last season, but none of the other big men offer much. Magloire is very slow and doesn’t seem to fit the Nets’ offense, and Collins, Boone, and Williams are all defensive-minded players who are liabilities on offense. For this team to make the playoffs again, it will rely on Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson to all stay healthy and carry the scoring load. Another key could be Marcus Williams, who will need to fill in at times for an aging Kidd. If they all stay healthy, the Nets could have a shot at the division, but they are likely looking at another .500 season.

New York Knicks: Last season’s Knicks had a great deal of talent on paper, but was unable to produce. Oh wait, that could describe any Knicks team under Isiah Thomas. While they stayed competitive for a while, apparently enough so for Thomas to receive an extension, injuries led the Knicks to a terrible stretch run and they finished with only 33 wins. One of the few bright spots was David Lee, who averaged a double-double in points and rebounds despite primarily coming off the bench. The rest of the team struggled to mesh on offense and staggered on defense.

Arguably the biggest move on draft day was the Knicks’ acquisition of Zach Randolph from Portland for Channing Frye and Steve Francis. Based on talent, this appears to be a coup for the Knicks, but then what Isiah Thomas trade didn’t seem to favor them on paper? Frye and Francis is very little to give up for a young low-post scorer who averaged 23.6 PPG and 10.1 RPG last season, but it does very little to improve the Knicks’ season outlook (and one has to wonder why Portland was willing to make the deal without getting back more talent). This would be a great move, were it not for the fact that the Knicks already have a great low-post scorer in Eddy Curry. If both play to their strengths, they will get in each other’s way, and neither has the mid-range game or the passing ability to complement the other. Both are liabilities defensively, which will lead to easy points for opposing big men, as well as foul trouble for the Knicks. It’s very hard to call this a bad deal because the Knicks gave up so little, but unless they turn around and trade Curry for someone who’s a better fit, it’s hard to see this trade making the Knicks any better.

Like last year’s Knicks, this year’s version will lack a pure point guard, play poor defense, and take painfully bad shots. There is enough talent there that they will be capable of getting hot and beating almost anyone on a given night, but most of the team, their best bet will be to outgun teams, which is difficult when every guard on the roster would rather hoist a contested 40-foot jumper than pound the ball inside to one of the Knicks’ big men. This team’s only chance is for Isiah instill some kind of brilliant gameplan which utilizes all their talent (unlikely) and get all his players to buy into it (extremely unlikely). Sound realistic? Didn’t think so.

Philadelphia 76ers: Coming into last season, the Sixers were determined to make a return to the playoffs with Allen Iverson and Chris Webber. It quickly became clear that this wasn’t meant to be and the team decided to bail on the season. GM Billy King has been unable to figure out how to build a successful team around Iverson, despite the fact that they had that blueprint laid out for them in 2001, when Iverson was surrounded with good defenders and rebounders, who let Iverson do the bulk of the scoring and did all the dirty work for him. Instead the team tried to add scorers, such as Keith Van Horn, Glenn Robinson, and Webber. As a result, the Sixers were left with a frustrated Iverson, an overpaid and immobile Webber, several overpaid role players, and a few young players with upside. Trading Iverson was the only way to salvage the franchise, and so Iverson was dealt to Denver for Andre Miller, Joe Smith, and two first round draft picks. Miller, Smith, and the breakout performance of Andre Iguodala helped the Sixers to a strong finish…maybe too strong. The Sixers finished with 35 wins and the 12th overall draft pick, instead of the high lottery pick Sixers fans had hoped for.

The off-season was very quiet for the Sixers. King intended to trade some of his draft picks, but nothing ever materialized and the Sixers wound up keeping them all. The draft netted them Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, Derrick Byars, and Herbert Hill. Young is extremely athletic, a capable shooter, and has a ton of upside, though he seems awfully similar to last year’s first round pick, Rodney Carney, who had a very poor rookie season. Smith has the chance to be a good scoring power forward down the road, but he would not crack the rotation of most teams as a rookie. Byars and Hill have the chance to be solid role players, and Hill should be particularly interesting to watch, as he had a very strong senior season at Providence. Other than the draft, the only significant move was the trade that sent Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones to Denver for Reggie Evans and Ricky Sanchez. Evans is an elite rebounder, but does nothing else. He’ll compliment Samuel Dalembert well and shore up the Sixers’ rebounding woes, but he has no business starting on an NBA team.

The Sixers are in rebuilding mode and could well make a run for the worst record in the league, but they could at least be fun to watch. Miller does a very good job running the fastbreak and the Sixers have great athletes to put around him, in Iguodala, Carney, and Young. Iguodala’s development will be key, as he will try to prove he can be the team’s primary scorer. Another player to watch is Louis Williams, a lightning-quick, Iverson wannabe who showed some signs last year and dominated Summer League play. For the Sixers to succeed this year, it would take a monster season from Iguodala and just about every Sixers prospect taking a major step forward. Don’t count on it.