NBA Preview: Northwest Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Utah Jazz: The Jazz were a bit of a surprise last year, as they went 51-31 and won their division for the first time since the days of John Stockton and Karl Malone. Carlos Boozer led the way, averaging 20.9 PPG and 11.7 RPG and managing to stay healthy for the most part. He played in 74 games; only 10 less than he played in his last two seasons combined. Boozer’s inside presence made scoring easier for the rest of the team. Mehmet Okur shot a career high 38.4% from three-point range, while pouring in 17.6 PPG, and Deron Williams had an outstanding sophomore season, with 16.2 PPG and 9.3 APG. Derek Fisher provided some scoring and very good defense and he and Matt Harpring averaged double digits in scoring. Second round pick Paul Millsap provided a spark off the bench with his energy and rebounding. All these factors made up for poor play from Andrei Kirilenko, whose numbers were down across the board. First round pick Ronnie Brewer also struggled and left the Jazz with few options at shooting guard. Still, the Jazz were able to get to the Conference Finals, where they were defeated handily by the San Antonio Spurs. It should be noted that they had an easy road to the Conference Finals. They played a tough seven game series against Houston, which hasn’t won a playoff series since Hakeem Olajuwon was their center, then they faced the upstart Warriors, who were over-matched by Utah’s size.

Despite countless rumors about Kirilenko’s future with the team, the Jazz didn’t make any major moves in the off-season. The biggest change was the departure of Fisher, who was replaced by Ronnie Price and Jason Hart. Price and Hart will fight for the chance to back up Williams, as many of Fisher’s minutes will likely go to Brewer and this year’s first round pick, Morris Almond. Almond, a shooting guard out of Rice, was drafted primarily for his shooting ability; an area where the Jazz were sorely lacking last year.

This year’s Jazz should be very similar to last year’s edition. They will miss Fisher’s defense and veteran leadership, but Brewer and Almond should be able to fill the void and provide better scoring. Williams can only be expected to improve, as he develops into one of the league’s top point guards. Boozer and Okur should post similar numbers to last year’s, though one has to wonder whether Boozer can stay healthy again. The X-factor on this team is Kirilenko, who supposedly has worked out his issues with Sloan. The problem with Kirilenko is not his mood, rather it’s the way Sloan has been using him. Kirilenko has had his strongest seasons when he’s been utilized in the paint on offense. It helps him on defense because he can roam and block shots, but it’s particularly important on offense. Boozer’s presence turns Kirilenko into a perimeter player, which takes him out of the game as a scorer and leads to his frustration. If Sloan can find ways to work Kirilenko back into the offense, and thus energize him on defense, the Jazz could take a step forward, but if not, they’re not going to be able to match up with the West’s elite teams.

Denver Nuggets: Already one of the fastest teams in the league last year, the Nuggets made a bid to get even faster, sending Andre Miller and others to Philadelphia for Allen Iverson. The Nuggets hoped that Iverson, combined with Carmelo Anthony, would give them enough star-power to break into the top tier of Western Conference teams. However, the team played worse after the trade and were ousted by the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs after securing the 6th seed. The loss of Miller left Denver without a pure point guard until they dealt for Steve Blake, but even then the team struggled to find a winning formula. Iverson should not receive all the blame, as he was on his own for the first several games after the trade, as Anthony served a suspension for involvement in a fight at Madison Square Garden. Even when the two superstars did get to play together, they didn’t have much time to develop chemistry before the playoffs. Outside of their two scorers, Denver’s most valuable asset was their size. Marcus Camby and Nene gave them one of the top frontcourts in the league. Their biggest weakness was their three-point shooting, or lack thereof. J.R. Smith was their best shooter, but it was difficult to work him into the lineup, with Iverson and Blake as the starting guards and Anthony at small forward.

Rather than overpay for Blake, the Nuggets opted to let him go and replaced him with Chucky Atkins. While Atkins lacks Blake’s passing ability, he is a better shooter and should benefit from the open looks generated by Iverson and Anthony. The only other move of note was the trade that sent Reggie Evans to Philadelphia for Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones. Evans is an outstanding rebounder, but with Camby and Nene, plus Kenyon Martin coming back, Evans was expendable. Hunter is a solid backup center who excelled in Phoenix’s fast-paced offense. He’ll block a shot here and there and get a few dunks, but he probably won’t log more than 10 minutes a game. At least, not until Camby, Nene, or Martin suffers an injury.

It’s hard to know just how good the Nuggets can be, and clearly they don’t know, based on their quiet off-season. Their defense will be a liability, as Nene is the only good defender in the starting lineup. (Yes, I know Camby won Defensive Player of the Year, but all that award signifies is he got a lot of rebounds and blocked shots. His man-to-man defense is average at best. That’s why he didn’t guard Tim Duncan in the playoffs.) For Denver, the best defense is a good offense, as they’ll have to do their best to run their opposition out of the gym. Anthony is one of the best pure scorers in the league and Iverson is still one of the better ones (though one has to wonder when he’ll finally break down), but the team would have done well to add more shooting. If Iverson and Anthony can figure out how to work off of each other and exploit defenses, then the Nuggets could take the division from Utah. More likely they will be a 6 or 7 seed once again.

Seattle Supersonics: The Sonics hoped they could shake off a disappointing 2005-06 season and revert to their form of three years ago, when they won 52 games and the division. Poor defense, rebounding, and several key injuries made sure that this would not occur. Both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis averaged over 20 PPG, but neither was able to play more than 60 games. This left Seattle with relatively little on offense, relying on Chris Wilcox and Luke Ridnour. Even when Allen and Lewis were healthy, their scoring was offset by their lackluster defense. Meanwhile, Seattle’s centers did not develop as they had hoped. Robert Swift showed signs in the pre-season, but suffered a season-ending injury before the regular season began, and Johan Petro and Mouhamed Sene were ineffective.

A 51-loss season, plus securing the second overall draft pick caused the Sonics to overhaul their roster, starting on draft night when the Sonics selected Kevin Durant, then turned around and dealt Allen to Boston for the fifth overall pick (Jeff Green), Delonte West, and Wally Szczerbiak. The drafting of Durant led to Lewis’ departure, which is not a major loss considering Lewis’ absurdly large contract and the fact that the Sonics had already resigned themselves to rebuilding. Seattle also traded for veteran Kurt Thomas, who will provide some rebounding and defense in the paint, which Seattle has lacked in recent years. More important is Thomas’ expiring contract, which will give the Sonics more cap room at the end of the year, or a valuable trading chip as the trade deadline approaches. Seattle also made a coaching change, hiring P.J. Carlesimo who had served as an assistant with the Spurs for the last several years.

While this team is a few years away from being competitive, Seattle has an interesting group of young players. Durant is by far the most intriguing and all eyes will be on him to see how he develops. He is by far the most likely candidate to win Rookie of the Year (especially after Greg Oden’s season-ending injury) and should be able to step right in and put up impressive scoring numbers. Green is another interesting prospect, whose game should translate better to the NBA than it did at Georgetown. West will get the chance to prove he can start every day at shooting guard, and he could be another key youngster for the Sonics. Don’t expect many wins from this team, but they (or at least Durant) should be fun to watch.

Portland Trailblazers: Coming off a dismal 21-win season, the Blazers struggled, but appeared to have a bright future. Zach Randolph emerged as one of the best low-post scorers in the league, averaging 23.6 PPG and 10.1 RPG, Brandon Roy won Rookie of the Year, and LaMarcus Aldridge also had a promising rookie campaign. Even with those performances, the Blazers were too young and lacked the talent to be competitive and they landed in the lottery yet again. Their fortunes were transformed when they won the lottery and prepared to draft their next great big man.

The Blazers took Greg Oden with their first pick, then promptly traded Randolph to the Knicks for Channing Frye and Steve Francis. Francis was immediately bought out, but Frye has a little upside and would have been a good fit next to Oden. That said, the Blazers gave up a great talent in Randolph and got very little in return. Oden and Randolph might have had trouble playing together, but it’s hard to believe that the Blazers couldn’t get more for him (say, from Chicago). Portland added four players in the draft after Oden: Rudy Fernandez, Josh McRoberts, Petteri Koponen, and Taurean Green. Fernandez will remain in Europe for another year, but should help the Blazers upon arrival. Koponen will also stay abroad for now. McRoberts was a nice pick in the second round, but Green isn’t likely to get much playing time, as the Blazers already have a lot of young guards. Portland also added Steve Blake to a now-crowded backcourt, and they acquired James Jones from Phoenix.

While there was talk of the playoffs in Portland after they won the draft lottery, these hopes were dashed when Oden was forced to undergo microfracture surgery. There’s no telling whether he’ll ever be the same, but the Blazers will have to carry on this season and hope for the best. They can still count on improvement from last year’s rookies and they can use this season to get a sense of what the rest of their young players are worth. That said, Portland doesn’t have much hope of contention this year and they are likely looking at another top 5 draft pick. The one potential silver lining to the Oden injury is that it could land Portland another future All-Star to play alongside their already impressive nucleus, but the franchise’s future hinges on Oden’s recovery.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota missed the playoffs for the second straight year, which ultimately spelled the end of the Kevin Garnett era. Garnett had a good season, though not one of his best, likely due to frustration. Randy Foye had an impressive rookie season once he began to get regular playing time and another rookie, Craig Smith proved to be a good energy player. Ricky Davis and Mark Blount were decent on offense, but lackadaisical on defense. Their biggest off-season addition, Mike James, turned out to be a bust. All in all it was a disappointing effort for the Timberwolves and it was clear that they were making the transition into rebuilding mode.

At 31, Garnett wanted no part of rebuilding and he was subsequently dealt to Boston for Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and two first round draft picks. Minnesota also added Corey Brewer and Chris Richard through the draft. Later in the off-season, they traded Davis and Blount to Miami for Antonio Walker, Michael Doleac, and Wayne Simien. None of the players from that deal figure to play a prominent role in Minnesota’s rebuilding efforts, but clearing the roster of Davis and Blount will give Minnesota’s young players more minutes.

It’s hard to know who will win the Garnett trade in the long run, but it does leave Minnesota with a number of intriguing young players. Foye should continue to develop into a good all-around combo guard, Jefferson is already one of the best young post players in the league, Gomes and Smith are both good energy players with some versatility, Green is a superb athlete with a great three-point shot, and Brewer is a defensive stopper with the potential to be a good scorer. If all, or at least a few, of these players develop as expected, the Timberwolves should have a very formidable core in a few years, especially considering they should have another top 5 draft pick this year. It’s going to be a long season in Minnesota, but down the road they could be much better off without Garnett. Kevin McHale better hope that’s the case or he’ll be out of a job.

NBA Preview: Southeast Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Orlando Magic: There were high expectations in Orlando coming into last season. In some ways they were met, as the Magic made the playoffs. That said, they did so by claiming the 8th seed and wound up getting swept in the first round by Detroit. Dwight Howard had an excellent season, averaging 17.6 PPG and 12.3 RPG, proving himself to be the East’s best big man. Howard had a great year, but he had very little help. Grant Hill played well and was surprisingly healthy and Trevor Ariza had a decent season, but no one else performed to expectations. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo were an erratic tandem at point guard, Darko Milicic, even with consistent playing time, proved unable to justify his draft position, Hedo Turkoglu put up good scoring numbers, but was terrible on defense and rebounding, and J.J. Redick was unable to crack the rotation until late in the season. Of the players that were effective and healthy, very few of them are capable three-point shooters, and as a result opposing defenses were able to collapse on Howard, which no doubt contributed to his league-high 317 turnovers.

To improve their three-point shooting woes, the Magic made one of the biggest, and most controversial, moves of the summer, signing and trading for former Seattle swingman Rashard Lewis. Lewis is an outstanding shooter and a very good all-around scorer, but the Magic likely overpaid for him when they signed a contract for $118 million over 6 years. To make room for Lewis, Orlando let Grant Hill go. Hill’s defense will be missed, but Lewis is a major upgrade offensively because of how his three-point shooting will help Howard. Also leaving Orlando were Darko and Travis Diener, neither of whom should be greatly missed. The Magic picked up Adonal Foyle, who isn’t a great player, but he’s a big step up from backup Tony Battie. Orlando also has a new head coach in Stan Van Gundy. Van Gundy was pretty successful in Miami before Pat Riley decided to take over, and besides he can’t be much worse than Brian Hill. It would’ve been interesting to see Billy Donovan actually honor the contract he signed, but Van Gundy is probably a better option anyway, as college coaches rarely make a good transition to the pros.

This year’s Magic will have a very different look than the 2006-07 team did. With Lewis in the fold and Redick likely getting a lot more playing time, Howard should have a lot more room to operate down low. His turnovers should go down and his assists should go up, as the Magic can effectively dare teams to double team him. At the same time, Howard can be expected to improve, as he is only 21. While the Magic will be much better on offense, they’ll likely take a step backward defensively. Grant Hill played very good defense for Orlando and replacing him with Lewis will make them considerably worse on that front. The Magic will likely play Howard with Lewis, Turkoglu, and Redick at times, which, aside from Howard and whoever plays point guard, is a terrible defensive group. Howard may see his blocked shots total increase, as opposing players will drive past this trio with relative ease. Of course, it will also land him in a lot more foul trouble. Orlando’s offense should be improved enough that they should be a considerably better team, and while their defense is a legitimate concern, they should be able to get away with it in the Southeast and win the division.

Washington Wizards: While the Wizards were a lot of fun to watch last year, they were something of a disappointment. They lit up the scoreboard thanks to Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison, but poor defense combined with injuries to key players led to a .500 season and a first round playoff defeat by the Cavaliers. Had all their stars been healthy, Washington could have put up more of a fight against Cleveland, but Arenas missed the series and as a result the Wizards got swept. Butler and Jamison also missed a number of games due to injury, which likely cost Washington the division. Even had they all been healthy, the Wizards were not as good as Cleveland, Chicago, or Detroit, but they would have been far more competitive down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Washington brought back most of last year’s team in a fairly uneventful off-season. Jarvis Hayes was cut loose and he will effectively be replaced by first round draft pick Nick Young, out of USC. Young is a very good athlete and a great shooter, but it’s hard to say how much he’ll help Washington even if he lives up to his hype, as they are already loaded with perimeter players. Young could give DeShawn Stevenson a run for his starting spot, but Stevenson is Washington’s best, and perhaps only, perimeter defender, so they will think twice before relegating him to the bench.

These Wizards should be about the same as last year’s team, as no major moves were made. One has to wonder how Arenas’ knee will hold up, coming off surgery. Another concern is the loss of Etan Thomas, who recently had open-heart surgery and will be out for several months. Thomas had split time with Brendan Haywood at center and the two had formed a pretty effective tandem, at least defensively. The bottom line is that the Wizards will win by out-gunning teams, not with defense, and to put up the points they’ll need to win, they will need all their stars to stay healthy. If that happens, they could win the division, but any serious injuries could land them in the lottery.

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks had another poor season last year, making yet another appearance in the lottery. The team had a great deal of injuries, in fact Shelden Williams was the only one to stay relatively healthy, but good health would not have been enough to save this squad. Joe Johnson led the team in scoring with 25 PPG, while shooting 47%. Josh Smith continued to improve and scored 16.4 PPG, while collecting 8.6 RPG and leading the team with 207 blocked shots. Marvin Williams and Josh Childress had respectable seasons as well. The problem? All of these players are 6′7″ or taller and play shooting guard or small forward. The Hawks suffered, once again from poor point guard play and little size in the middle. Tyronn Lue, Speedy Claxton, and late-season addition Anthony Johnson, simply won’t cut it at point and, other than Smith, no one on the Hawks averaged 7+ rebounds a game (though Shelden Williams had a very good rebound rate).

The Hawks addressed both their needs in the off-season through the draft. They lucked out in the lottery, securing the third pick. Their pick would have gone to Phoenix, but it was top 3 protected. They used this pick to select Al Horford, who is a very promising young big man. He should improve their rebounding and also give them some low-post scoring, which they haven’t had in recent years. There was some speculation they should have used the pick to take Mike Conley, the top point guard prospect in the draft, particularly after the debacle that was the 2005 draft, when the Hawks passed up on both Deron Williams and Chris Paul to select Marvin Williams. The Hawks made the right choice in this case, as Horford is a better player and much safer pick than Marvin Williams was, while Conley lacks the upside of Deron Williams or Paul. Atlanta addressed its needs at point guard by taking Acie Law with the 11th pick. Law had a phenomenal senior season at Texas A&M, but there are some questions about him as a pro. He is very good at a lot of different things, but he doesn’t have any one skill that stands out. Best-case scenario, he projects to a Sam Cassell-type player. Even if he does turn out well, he is not a pure point guard and will not be a particularly good fit for this team, but at least he gives them one more option.

Aside from their draft picks, the Hawks bring back the same team as last year. While they are still lacking at point guard, the addition of Horford and the continued development of their young players puts Atlanta in good position to take a big step forward this year. If the Hawks ownership could get it together and make a trade for a pass-first point guard, this team could finish over .500. As it is, barring the plague of injuries that hit them last year, the Hawks should be slightly below .500, which is enough to fight for a 7 or 8 seed in the East.

Miami Heat: While Miami won the division in 2006-07, they didn’t do it very convincingly, struggling out of the gate and taking it by a mere 3 games. Had Gilbert Arenas not suffered his season-ending injury, in all likelihood the Wizards would have held on and won the Southeast. In the playoffs, Miami’s title defense was short-lived, as they fell to the Bulls in the first round. Injuries, age, and a championship hangover led to their downfall. Dwyane Wade only suited up for 51 games, while Shaquille O’Neal only managed 40. Udonis Haslem and Alonso Mourning were fairly productive in the middle, and had to be to make up for Shaq’s absence. Jason Kapono was the biggest surprise, averaging a career-high 10.9 PPG and shooting over 50% from three-point range. Eddie Jones was added halfway through the season and actually played respectably, scoring 9.5 PPG. These players, plus Shaq and Wade (when healthy) kept the Heat afloat, there were many problems. Antoine Walker had his worst season as a pro, as did Gary Payton. James Posey played poorly and Dorrell Wright show no real signs of improvement.

In the off-season, Miami replaced a lot of their role players. Kapono, Posey, Walker, and Jones are all out. While the Heat will miss the three-point shooting of these players (except for Walker), Kapono is the biggest loss and he was overpaid to go to Toronto, so it’s difficult to fault the Heat for not bringing him back. Walker was dealt to the Timberwolves in a trade that netted Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. Davis is a head case and had worn out his welcome in Minnesota, but he should provide the Heat with some much needed scoring, especially early in the season, when Wade will be out due to injury. Blount played well opposite Kevin Garnett last year, averaging 12.3 PPG, but he is a very poor rebounder and defender and is unlikely to get as many open looks in Miami as he did with the Timberwolves. The biggest free agent acquisition Miami made was that of Smush Parker, who could start at point guard. This says more about how far Jason Williams has fallen than it does for the Heat’s faith in Parker. Penny Hardaway was also added, but there’s no guarantee he makes the team. In the draft, the Heat selected Daequan Cook, who will improve the team’s shooting, but is a very raw talent and is unlikely to have a major impact this year.

If there was any chance the Heat would have a healthy team, they would be the favorite to win the Southeast again, but Wade is already hurt and Shaq will surprise a lot of people if he plays in more than 50 games this year. Even if Shaq is healthy, he’s clearly on his last legs. After their superstars, the best players are Ricky Davis and Udonis Haslem. That’s not enough to make the playoffs, especially when one considers Davis’ production will likely take a nose-dive once Wade returns.

Charlotte Bobcats: While the Bobcats improved their record from their two previous seasons, it was still a pretty dismal season. Emeka Okafor played well, averaging a double-double, but missed several games and played hurt throughout much of the season. Gerald Wallace was Charlotte’s best player, averaging 18.1 PPG and 7.2 RPG, Raymond Felton had his best season yet, with 7 APG, and Matt Carroll emerged as a gunner from outside, shooting 41.6% on threes. While there were these bright spots, the team badly struggled on defense and was erratic on offense. Adam Morrison was a problem on both fronts. While he averaged double digits in scoring, he shot a very poor percentage (37.6%) and he was perhaps the worst defender in the NBA. In the end, while they showed a glimmer of hope, the Bobcats finished with only 33 wins.

Despite some improvement, Charlotte replaced head coach Bernie Bickerstaff, replacing him with Sam Vincent, who was handpicked by Michael Jordan. This was a surprising move considering Vincent has never been a head coach in the NBA before, but with such a young team it may not be a problem. The Bobcats added a proven scorer when they dealt Brandan Wright to the Warriors for Jason Richardson. Richardson should fit in nicely alongside Wallace, but it’s hard to know what this means for Carroll and Morrison, who now stand to lose a lot of minutes. The team also selected Jared Dudley and Jermareo Davidson. Dudley doesn’t fit the prototype of a typical NBA player, but his hustle and basketball IQ lead many to believe he’ll find a niche. Still, for a guy who projects as a role player, at best, it seemed a bit odd that the Bobcats would take him as high as 22nd. They probably could have waited on him.

Charlotte was a popular pick to take a big step forward and perhaps even make a playoff run, but the news that Sean May will undergo knee surgery put a major damper on their expectations. This leaves Charlotte very thin in the frontcourt, with Ryan Hollins likely starting at center. They should still be better than last year, thanks to the addition of Richardson and the fact that Morrison can only improve on his rookie season. If he and other young players, such as Felton, develop well, then the Bobcats could make a run at the 8th seed, but odds are they’re in for another lottery season.