As you may know, there is basketball tonight. Namely, the Spurs host the Lakers in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. You’ve probably heard hours worth of previews, so instead of discussing the Bryant/Bowen battle, or Duncan’s penchant for big game numbers, or how Ronnie Turiaf is actually the Lakers’ secret weapon, I’m just gonna cut to brass tacks. Pure gut instinct prediction! And hey, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong, and if I’m right, everyone will shower me with praise and money. I hope. I mean, it’s possible. Right? Please send me money.

That said, here it is:

Lakers 78
Spurs 91

You don’t even need to watch the game now! Enjoy!

Watching game 5, I was struck by three things:

1. The utter incompetence demonstrated by the Boston Celtics when they attempted get an open look – any open look – down the stretch. Every possession was Rondo dribbling 30 feet from the basket till there were 8 seconds left on the shot clock and then lobbing some horrid pass to Garnett or Pierce 22 feet from the basket, where they had to chuck up a heavily contested fadeaway jumper or turn it over trying to get closer. It was an embarrassing display.

2. The utter incompetence demonstrated by the Detroit Pistons, namely Rasheed Wallace, in maintaining their composure down the stretch. His technical foul was a huge difference in the game. That one point allowed Boston to intentionally foul to prevent a three point attempt, and after Stuckey missed one of two, allowed Garnett to ice the game with two free throws to put Boston up 4. If I were a Piston fan, I would be furious with him. You CANNOT get a technical foul with four or however many minutes left in the game. You just can’t.

3. The utter incompetence demonstrated by the referees in attempting to call a consistent game. First they allowed nothing, then they called everything. A bump was a flagrant foul; a neck tackle was not. It was as absurdly and poorly officiated game as I can remember seeing, and the league should be embarrassed. And as awful as Rasheed getting that technical was, those refs need to swallow their whistles. It’s an intense game; shrug it off, zebras.

This series was destined to go seven games from the beginning, and you can rest assured that David Stern has already given the officials a stern (ZING!) talking to, and we will see a clear home team bias for the last two games. We can also be certain that Sam Cassell is looking forward to his own personal version of Red Auerbach’s victory “cigar”:

UPDATE: Rasheed agrees with point 3: “All that bull(bleep)-ass calls they had out there. With Mike [Callahan] and Kenny [Mauer] — you’ve all seen that (bleep),” Wallace said. “You saw them calls. The cats are flopping all over the floor and they’re calling that (bleep). That (bleep) ain’t basketball out there. It’s all (bleeping) entertainment. You all should know that (bleep). It’s all (bleeping) entertainment.”

Over at ESPN, J.A. Adande states his case for Robert Horry to be enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame. The article is long, but his argument can pretty much be boiled down to this:

1. He won 7 Championships
2. He made some big shots in the playoffs

Let me get two things out of the way before I dissect Adande’s piece: First, I have nothing but respect for Robert Horry, who’s a classy guy, a terrific clutch performer, and, rumor* has it, one hell of a salsa dancer. Second, my standards for inclusion in any sport’s hall of fame are incredibly high. Generally, if there’s any sort of debate over whether or not a certain player should be included, I fall on the side of “no way in hell.”

This is no exception.

Horry has had three seasons where he averaged more than 10 points a game, maxing out a robust 12.0 in 95-96. He has once averaged more than 7 rebounds per game (7.5 in 97-98). For his career, his numbers are 7.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bpg. Fine, and not wholly indicative of his contributions to the many good teams he played on. But not even close to hall of fame worthy.

No problem, says J.A. Adande. His legacy of winning dwarfs his statistical insufficiency. And he trots out a precedent: K.C. Jones.

“The NBA hasn’t seen a winner like Horry in three decades. John Havlicek retired in 1978, the last member of the Boston Celtics’ 1960s dynasty to check out, and one of only six players in NBA history with a championship ring collection larger than Horry’s seven. Of those six players — Bill Russell (11 rings), Sam Jones (10), Tom Heinsohn, K.C. Jones, Tom Sanders and Havlicek (eight each) — Sanders is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. But the fact that K.C. Jones is makes the case for Horry.

Jones averaged 7.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game in his nine-year career. Horry has averaged 7.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game in 16 seasons. Jones proved there’s a place in the Hall for underwhelming statistics if they came on winning teams.”

Adande left out the fact that Jones, in addition to his 8 NBA titles (in 9 years!), won 2 more college championships with Bill Russell at San Francisco, an Olympic gold medal, and 2 more championships as a head coach (‘84 and ‘86 with the Celtics). Though I would deem his inclusion controversial myself, by all reports his defensive and playmaking presence was a key to those 8 championship teams. Tom Sanders, mentioned above, had better career numbers than Jones or Horry (9.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg), and 8 championships (in 13 years), and yet is deemed unworthy of inclusion.

Robert Horry won 7 championships in 16 years. He won them riding on the coat tails of Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Shaq, Kobe, Duncan, Robinson, etc. Occasionally, he hit a huge (often wide open) shot late in the game, generally after one of the previously mentioned players had been double teamed. He was a very good positional defender, a solid spot up shooter, and, early in his career, an athletic asset on the fast break.

And he is not a hall of famer.

Not even close.

*There is no substantiation for this rumor. I’m starting it.

It’s that time of the year again, when we’ve finally gone through what feels like 18 weeks of basketball playoffs and are left with the final four, battling for another week until we’re left with only two teams. This year’s contenders are the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs in the West, and the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons in the East. And I probably couldn’t be more disappointed.

Now, granted, Boston and Detroit are probably the most entertaining teams in the East, and the best match up for competitiveness. Indeed, it would be hard to justify wanting more of the Cleveland “LeBron James and four sandbags” Cavaliers, or any other ultimately mediocre team (though Atlanta going far would have been up there with George Mason). Similarly, San Antonio and Los Angeles were arguably the best teams in the West this year. New Orleans was a fantastic story, and I was rooting for them, but you’d be kidding yourself if you thought they would have had an answer for Kobe et al.

My big gripe with this outcome is that these four teams–Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, Celtics–are four of the eight different teams that have won the NBA championship in the last 28 years. Since 1980, only eight have won.

And saying eight makes it seem like more teams than it really feels like; in 1983, the Sixers won it all once. Similarly, the Heat won it once in 2006. So outside of these anomalies, a mere six teams out of 28-30 (depending on the year) have dominated the championship for nearly three decades. The Lakers won 8 times, the Bulls 6 times, the Spurs 4 times, the Celtics 3 times, the Pistons 3 times, the Rockets twice, and then Miami and Philly.

That’s not even looking before 1980. Let’s not forget that from 1959 through 1966, the Celtics won it every single year, and then again in ‘68, ‘69, ‘74 and ‘76. The Minneapolis Lakers also won it four out of the first five times the NBA had its modern championship. This isn’t really a modern trend; sure, there are odd teams like the Syracuse Nationals or the Golden State Warriors winning once or twice, but largely, only a handful of teams seem ever to win.

What accounts for this ridiculous streak? Dynasty is the obvious answer, almost hardly worth mentioning. You assemble a good team, and if you’re able to lock those players up, you’ll probably win it all a couple of times in a row. But these are all different time periods that the Celtics and Lakers consistently won. Doesn’t it seem a bit anomalous that they would be able to assemble such powerhouse teams so many times over history? And the franchises in Minneapolis, Detroit and San Antonio are hardly overflowing with money. After all, if money were a factor, the Knicks would have won at least once since 1973.

I’m not saying that it’s inexplicable that these same franchises keep finding ways to dominate. But it does bother me that the same teams win over and over–especially this year, where the West was the most competitive conference in NBA history, and yet we almost ended up with the same Western Conference Finals match up as last year (SA vs Utah). In a year where New Orleans, Houston, Phoenix and others seemed like legit contenders, the same teams ended up on top. And when this 28th year ends, we’ll still only have eight unique champions.

Here’s hoping that next year, we get a Memphis/Indiana finals. Screw the terrible ratings; I want to see something new for once.

A few observations following Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery:

Doesn’t it just suck that two of the five best teams in the Eastern Conference next could be the two teams that picked one and two in the draft? One of my dark secrets is that I picked the Bulls to make the NBA finals before this year started (which just goes to show you should never ever listen to me). Instead they collapse, fire their coach, and are magically rewarded with Michael Beasley, who gives them exactly what they’ve been missing the last 4/5 years. It’s not quite David Robinson out for the year, the Spurs tanking and ending up with Tim Duncan, but it’s not far. Additionally, the Miami Heat go into next year with a starting lineup of Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, and Blount/Zo whoever at center. That’s the 2nd or 3rd best starting 5 in the conference (also the perfect spot for D’Antoni to have ended up. Too bad for him.)

If the Knicks take Danilo Gallinari, you might as well move the team to Rome. NY will not have it.

Most Knick fans will wind up hoping for Mayo (who’ll be taken by Minnesota at 3) and will have to settle for DeAndre Jordan, who won’t be a productive NBA player for at least 3 years, or well after the Knicks will have traded him, packaged with David Lee, Q-Richardson and Jared Jeffries for a one legged version of Jermaine O’Neal.

It doesn’t matter where he goes: Brook Lopez will be a bust in the mold of Rafael Araujo.

The best player taken outside the lottery will be Kevin Love, who’ll fall to the mid 20’s over concerns about the fact that his vertical needs to measured in centimeters.

My favorite non top 2 player in this draft is Joe Alexander, who will probably go somewhere around pick 10 (Charlotte would be a nice fit for him).

I am notoriously bad at figuring out who the good prospects will be, which means that when Brook Lopez wins his sixth championship ring, I will be found at my local Food Emporium, telling Kevin Love that I prefer paper bags.

There’s a lot of hysteria about the possibility of an uncapped season in a couple years, but it probably won’t happen. I was going to write about the reasons why it’s unlikely, but Pat Kirwan from NFL.com already did it for me.

Click here for story.

Listening to WFAN sports talk radio over the last few days has thrown my world into chaos. When the D’Antoni news broke, I, for one, lept around my room in a state of unadulterated joy. “The Isiah era is over!” I cried. “We brought in a real basketball mind to be president, and a coach who won 58 games a year! Finally, we’re on the right path!”

Then I turned on the radio.

*Mike from Yonkers: “I dunno, man, I just don’t think this guy is the right fit.”
Joe from the Bronx: “Mark Jackson would’ve been a much better chance.”
Cleon from Red Hook: “It’s just more of the same. You a loser in Phoenix, you gonna be a loser in NY.”
…
…
…!
WHAT?!?!? Are Knick fans insane?!? Has the Isiah era (like the Bush administration) left us all so jaded, so cynical, so distrustful, that we no longer have any hope for anyone who’s ever been involved in basketball?

We, as Knicks fans need to start breathing deeply and recognizing a few things:
1. We now, for the first time in almost 10 years, have good, solid basketball minds in the front office and on the bench. This is nothing to sneeze at; rather, it’s something to be thrilled about.
2. This is a full fledged rebuilding process. It’s going to take at least two, maybe even three years for Walsh and D’Antoni to put together the core of players they want.
3. Since Walsh hired D’Antoni, that means one of two things: either A) D’Antoni has signed up to coach with a style suited to the roster that Walsh is planning on putting together, or B) Walsh is committed to bringing in the players best suited for D’Antoni’s style in Phoenix. Either one of these is a good thing. This is not Isiah and Larry Brown, these are two excellent basketball minds on the same page.

Many of the complaints around D’Antoni center around the fact that he couldn’t get over the hump and win a title in Phoenix. Now, this may be a valid concern for some teams trying to get over the hump. This is not a concern for a team that’s won a little more than 200 games in the last 7 years. Let’s build a winner first, please?

*Note: I was driving, so I was unable to take down names or notes. All supposedly direct quotes in this paragraph are paraphrases, and all names are made up. It just sounds better that way.

Now that we’ve all had time to digest the thrilling NFL Draft, here’s how each team did.

First off, let me give the entire league a general thumbs up for not drafting a wide receiver in the top 10- and even in the first round.

A- : Kansas City Chiefs : Glenn Dorsey DT, Brandon Albert OT, Brandon Flowers CB. KC fans should have been cheering in the streets when Dorsey fell to them, and they wisely used their second pick to address need on the other side of the ball. Flowers in the second round was a solid pickup. Too bad they traded Jared Allen, or maybe the Chiefs would be in the conversation for one of the best D-lines in the league, but without the trade they don’t get Albert.

B+ : Buffalo Bills : Leodis McKelvin CB, James Hardy WR. Wisely drafted the (arguably) best all-around corner in the draft and waited until the 2nd round to address the WR need.

B+ : Baltimore Ravens : Joe Flacco QB, Ray Rice RB. Flacco is a good pickup for where he is drafted. He will need a year or two to adjust, but should make the Ravens into a contender in the near future. One wonders if the Ravens defense will be able to holdover until that happens.

B+ : Pittsburgh Steelers : Rashard Mendenhall RB, Limas Sweed WR. Two of the best players at their respective positions. The Steelers need all the help they can get with their schedule, and the funny thing is that after losing 2 home games against Jacksonville in 2007-2008, they go to Jacksonville in 2008-2009. Failed to address first-round needs on the offensive line.

B+ : Washington Redskins : Devin Thomas WR, Fred Davis TE, Malcolm Kelly WR. In about 6 hours, Washington revamped basically their entire offense for the better. Jason Campbell won’t have any excuses if he fails next year with two of the top WRs of the ‘08 class in addition to Chris Cooley and Santana Moss. The only thing they didn’t do was draft a safety, which is a little questionable. And odds are one of the two WRs will work out.

B : Miami Dolphins: Jake Long OT, Philip Merling DE, Chad Henne QB. Chad Henne brought down the Dolphin’s grade from an A-. QB isn’t the problem in Miami, and they could have used their third pick to draft a linebacker like Dan Connor to replace Zach Thomas or a wide receiver like Early Doucet or Mario Manningham.

B : New Orleans Saints : Sedrick Ellis DT, Tracy Porter CB. Traded with New England to stick it to the Bengals, who still won’t have a run defense.

B : Arizona Cardinals : Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB, Calais Campbell DE. Two solid players who should at the worst be passable starters. Can’t get much worse than Antrelle Rolle anyways.

B : Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Aqib Talib CB, Dexter Jackson WR. #1 pass defense in the NFL doesn’t mean much when you don’t play against a good team your entire season. It’s nice to see a team that realizes that. D. Jackson should be groomed to replace Joey Galloway.

B : Dallas Cowboys : Felix Jones RB, Mike Jenkins CB, Martellus Bennett TE. Jones should compliment Marion Barber nicely, while Jenkins will make a nice replacement for Roy Wil…err, a nickel corner. Bennett is a good blocking TE that can also go out and catch passes. Another weapon for Tony Romo- so as long as they aren’t in the playoffs, the Cowboys should be a great team next year.

B : Seattle Seahawks : Lawrence Jackson DE, John Carlson TE. Hopefully Carlson is the kind of TE that Seattle has been missing for the past couple seasons. Jackson should be a nice complement to Patrick Kerney, but the real reason they get a B is because they finally released Shaun “jelly legs” Alexander.

B : Philadelphia Eagles : Trevor Laws DT, DeSean Jackson WR. Hopefully Jackson will be a little more reliable than Kevin Curtis and/or Reggie Brown. Also picked up a first rounder in 2009 for basically pocket change.

B- : Oakland Raiders : Darren McFadden RB. Should have drafted Glenn Dorsey and maybe move into the top half of the league in rush defense. Oakland was already stocked with tailbacks…wtf. B- only because McFadden is ridiculous.

B- : NY Jets : Vernon Gholston DE, Dustin Keller TE. Props for not letting a monster like Gholston slip to the Patriots. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen if Gholston can be convinced to play every down by the Jets mediocre coaching staff. And please stop making a big deal about Gholston facing Jake Long twice a year. Gholston got one sack on Long, but was shut down the rest of the game and even got pancaked more than once.

B- : Denver Broncos : Ryan Clady OT, Eddie Royal WR. Not bad pickups, probably could have done better than Royal at #42 but a solid day 1 for the Broncos. Let’s hope Royal can avoid shoving his arm through home entertainment centers unlike a certain other Broncos starting WR.

B- : Chicago Bears : Chris Williams OT, Matt Forte RB. Goodbye Cedric Benson! Finally! Williams should give Forte someone to run behind in the very competitive NFC North. Whether or not the Bears’ QB will be worth protecting remains to be seen.

B- : Detroit Lions : Gosder Cherilus OT, Jordon Dizon LB. They didn’t draft a WR!! Amazing. Cherilus is a bit of a reach, but basically any half-decent O-lineman is an improvement considering the frequency that Jon Kitna is on the ground. Maybe that’s why he’s always looking up at the sky praying.

B- : New York Giants : Kenny Phillips S, Terrell Thomas CB. Addressed a value/need pick at the safety position. Got possibly the steal of the draft in Mario Manningham late in round 3. It’s hard to knock their not drafting a linebacker until the 4th round.

B- : Indianapolis Colts : Mike Pollack C (Tony Ugoh OT). No first-rounder this year, but Pollack should be a suitable replacement for Jeff Saturday and Tony Ugoh turned into a starter his rookie season in a very competitive division. Peyton Manning can continue his dominance.

B- : Minnesota Vikings : Tyrell Johnson S. Replace or complement aging Donovan Darius.

C+ : St. Louis Rams : Chris Long DE, Donnie Avery WR. Ok, I honestly don’t understand drafting Donnie Avery at #33 when every WR was still on the board. I have, however, recanted my belief that the Rams should have taken Glenn Dorsey over Long as I forgot that they had Carriker playing on the outside at DE instead of DT.

C+ : Cincinnati Bengals : Keith Rivers LB, Jerome Simpson WR. Didn’t get Sedrick Ellis. Drafting Simpson over Sweed, Kelly, and DeSean Jackson is a little questionable. Keep them out of jail!

C+ : San Diego Chargers : Antoine Cason CB. Not a very large draft class for the Chargers, but decent enough. Cason should be a starter by the time Jammer retires… or by the time he should retire.

C : New England Patriots : Jerod Mayo LB, Terrence Wheatley CB. At least Belichick didn’t get stupid in his arrogance. Mayo should be able to learn from Seau, Bruschi, and Vrabel and be productive immediately. However, one has to wonder how he is literally going to replace all 3 of them at the same time when they all die of old age sometime in the middle of next season. Lastly, the Patriots don’t have a good track record of home-grown linebackers. Probably could have been at least a B if they hadn’t cheated and were able to keep their own first round pick.

C : Houston Texans : Duane Brown OT. If they wanted a tackle, why not just stay put at #18 to grab Cherilus or trade up a few spots to get one of the consensus first-round tackles?

C- : Atlanta Falcons : Matt Ryan QB, Sam Baker OT, Curtis Lofton LB. Matt Ryan and Joey Harrington on the same team is going to be the most pathetic QB controversy outside of Chicago. Sam Baker was a major reach, and if they wanted a tackle they should have traded up higher to get a better one.

C- : San Francisco 49ers : Kentwan Balmer DT. It’s hard to know how to grade the 49ers. Part of me likes the nose tackle pick to give already-matured Patrick Willis more room to run around and make tackles, but on the other hand can Mike Martz really turn Alex Smith, Arnaz Battle, and Isaac Bruce into a fearsome offense? My guess is no, so I think they should have taken a WR or traded out of the first round to get more picks. Nobody has really said it, but the 49ers need to go into rebuilding mode because of their selection of Alex Smith.

C- : Green Bay Packers : Jordy Nelson WR, Brian Brohm QB. Why draft a WR? Last I checked the Packers weren’t needy in the passing department, Brett Favre or not. I also don’t really understand drafting Brohm, as this just puts unnecessary pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I guess none of it really matters because as soon as Brett Favre walks back into Lambeau Field he’s going to suit up and start.

D+ : Carolina Panthers : Jonathan Stewart RB, Jeff Otah OT. Gave up way too much for Otah. If they were going to draft an OT, why not use their first pick and not reach and trade into the late first round if necessary to get Stewart? I doubt he would have been taken before the Chargers.

D- : Jacksonville Jaguars : Derrick Harvey DE, Quentin Groves DE. Trading up from #26 to #8, only to reach for a DE? Until it’s shown to be a stroke of genius it’s a failure. Starting 2 rookie DEs is just asking for trouble in a division with upper-tier offensive lines in the Colts’ and the Titans’.

X : Cleveland Browns : Lots of later round picks. I don’t care about later round picks not named Tom Brady. The Browns built through free agency this year and had pretty good drafts the last couple of years.

F : Tennessee Titans : Chris Johnson RB, Jason Jones DT. Here’s an idea Tennessee, instead of setting VY up for failure, how about drafting someone to catch his passes? Or instead of drafting a second rate DT, why not re-sign your pro bowl franchised player to the long term deal he deserves? Idiotic draft (unless Johnson lines up at WR and VY learns to bomb it, unlikely given his retarded sidearm throwing motion). Total failure.